Flickering Stock: Vistra Energy Corp. (NYSE: VST)

On 16 Dec 2019, Vistra Energy Corp. (NYSE: VST) spotted trading -13.30% off 52-week high price. On the other end, the stock has been noted 16.34% away from the low price over the last 52-weeks. The stock changed 2.24% to recent value of $24.24. The stock transacted 6451177 shares during most recent day however it has an average volume of 4421.75K shares. The company has 494.38M of outstanding shares and 486.61M shares were floated in the market.

Vistra Energy Corp. (VST):

Financial Highlights

Delivered strong third quarter 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 of $1,064M and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $122M—results in-line with management expectations for the quarter, which already embedded an assumption of high wholesale power prices.

Narrowed 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) guidance ranges to $3.32 to $3.42B and $2.2 to $2.3B, respectively1—the top half of Vistra’s previous2019 guidance ranges, reflecting higher guidance midpoints and an predictable EBITDA to free cash flow conversion of about 67%.

Initiated 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) guidance ranges of $3.285 to $3.585B and $2.160 to $2.460B, respectively.1 The midpoint of Vistra’s 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance range is above the higher 2019 guidance midpoint and represents a raise of over 20%, or over $600M, as contrast to the 2020 Adjusted EBITDA estimate for the business in connection with the Dynegy merger.

Increased Operations Performance Initiative (OPI) target by an additional $150M, reflecting a raise of $50M in EBITDA enhancements identified from Vistra’s ongoing fleet operations and a net $100M EBITDA uplift from the retirement of four MISO coal plants as required under the Multi-Pollutant Standard rule changes; predictable to realize and achieve $715M of merger value lever targets as follows ($ in millions):

Growth and Sustainability Highlights

Completed the acquisition of Ambit Energy on Nov. 1, 2019 utilizing cash on hand. Vistra added about 11 TWh of retail load with nearly 60% in the attractive ERCOT retail market, bringing its average generation to retail load match to ~58%.

Reported greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets of greater than 50% by 2030 and greater than 80% by 2050, each as contrast to a 2010 baseline, with aspirations to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 assuming necessary advancements in technology and supportive market constructs and public policy. Achieving the 2030 target is predictable to have minimal impact on ongoing adjusted EBITDA.

Stepped Down about 1.5 GW of coal-fueled generation in downstate Illinois on Nov. 1, 2019, in partial satisfaction of a requirement to retire 2.0 GW of coal-fueled generation under the Illinois’ Multi-Pollutant Standard rule changes. Vistra expects to retire the remaining about 0.5 GW of coal-fueled generation on Dec. 15, 2019. These actions are forecast to be accretive to ongoing adjusted EBITDA by about $100M per year.

Reached a contract to settle a long-standing lawsuit involving the 585 MW Edwards coal-fueled power plant near Peoria, IL. Settlement, upon court authorization, requires retirement of Edwards by the end of 2022.

Its earnings per share (EPS) expected to touch remained -123.20% for this year while earning per share for the next 5-years is expected to reach at 21.10%. According to the most recent quarter its current ratio was 1.1 that represents company’s ability to meet its current financial obligations. The price moved ahead of -4.96% from the mean of 20 days, -7.73% from mean of 50 days SMA and performed -3.18% from mean of 200 days price. Company’s performance for the week was 2.41%, -7.97% for month and YTD performance remained 5.90%.


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